Population decline continues in South Korea for the 5th straight year despite birth rate increase

Despite a surprise increase in birth rates in 2024, the population decline in South Korea continued, with the population shrinking by over 450,000 people over the past five years.

According to provisional population statistics released by Statistics Korea's National Statistical Portal (KOSIS) on February 3, the country experienced a population decrease of 120,000 in 2024.

Although the number of newborns reached 238,000, which is an increase of 8,000 compared to 2023, the death toll (358,000) still far exceeded the number of births.

By region, Sejong City was the only area where births outnumbered deaths, resulting in a natural population increase of 1,000. In contrast, all 16 other regions recorded population declines.

Since experiencing its first population decline in 2020, South Korea has seen a continuous decrease in population for five consecutive years.

The scale of decline grew from -33,000 in 2020, expanding during the COVID-19 period to -57,000 in 2021, and further worsening to -124,000 in 2022. Since then, the decline has remained in the -120,000 range for three years, including -122,000 in 2023 and -120,000 in 2024.

Over the past five years, the total population has shrunk by approximately 456,000 people.

This represents a loss of about 0.9% of the country’s total registered population (51.21 million as of December 2024).

Looking at five-year intervals, South Korea’s population increased by 2.33 million people between 1990 and 1994. However, this figure dropped to 1.436 million people in 2000–2004 and further declined to 984,000 people in 2010–2014.

By 2015–2019, the increase in population had shrunk to just 396,000 people, before turning negative with population decline starting in 2020.

The decline in births is even more pronounced. Over the past five years (2020–2024), only 1.25 million babies were born, a record low in five-year intervals. Births decreased from 3.527 million births in 1990–1994 to 2.669 million births in 2000–2004. The decline continued with 2.298 million births in 2005–2009 and a similar number in 2010–2014. However, the pace of decline then accelerated, with births falling to 1.832 million in 2015–2019 and dropping further to 1.25 million births in 2020–2024.

Marriage trends, which directly impact birth rates, show a similar pattern. Although the number of marriages in 2024 reached 222,000—the highest since 2019 (239,000)—the cumulative figure over the past five years remains at an all-time low. From 2020 to 2024, a total of 1.014 million marriages were recorded, a decrease of 332,000 compared to 1.346 million in the previous five-year period (2015–2019).

Despite a temporary rebound in birth rates last year, experts predict that the long-term trend of population decline will persist. 

With an aging population, the working-age population is shrinking while the aging-dependent population grows, raising concerns over an "aging burden" that could slow economic growth.

According to Statistics Korea’s future population projections, under the median scenario, the population is expected to decrease from 51.67 million people in 2022 to 51.31 million people by 2030, and further decline to 36.22 million people by 2072—returning to population levels not seen since 1977.

By 2072, the proportion of those aged 65 and older is projected to reach nearly half (47.7%) of South Korea's total population.

In the worst-case scenario, the population could drop even further to 30.17 million people by 2072, comparable to the population level back in 1967.

A recent long-term fiscal outlook from the National Assembly Budget Office warned that under this low-population scenario, the national debt-to-GDP ratio could rise to 181.9%, 9 percentage points higher than the median scenario projection of 173.0%.

The office emphasized, “If the birth rate rebound observed in 2024 proves to be just temporary and the low-population scenario materializes, the national debt burden will increase. Therefore, policy efforts are needed to maintain at least a median-level population structure.”